July 15, 2023, marked one of the biggest days in United States professional soccer history. Arguably the greatest soccer player of all time, Lionel Messi, joined Major League Soccer Eastern Conference side Inter Miami on a two-year deal. In Major League Soccer (MLS) there are two conferences: the Eastern and Western conferences. Both conferences consist of 15 teams making the total teams in MLS 30. In his short time with the team, so far, Messi has already made a huge impact, not just on the team, but also on the league as a whole. He has won his club a domestic trophy in the Leagues Cup, which is a tournament with MLS clubs competing against the Mexican pro soccer league, Liga MX. Since Messi joined the team, he has scored ten goals in tournament play, six starts, and two assists. While in league play which is the regular season in the MLS, he has scored one goal with two assists in two starts.
Hence Lionel Messi joining the team has caused ticket prices to blow through the roof. The average ticket price for last weekend’s game against Los Angeles Football Club(LAFC) was around $700 which represents just one factor in how special and once-in-a-lifetime opportunity it is to see Messi in action. This figure is a staggering 527% increase since Messi’s arrival compared to the average ticket price before his arrival which was around $100. Other than this match, the average ticket price for an Inter Miami home game is now around $170. These stats show how much Messi has changed the world of soccer in the MLS since his arrival. Also, Inter Miami is the number one-selling sports team in America right now according to Fanatics.com.
Many big-name European players have also joined Messi’s side, contributing to the team’s recent success, these include his long-time Barcelona teammates, Jordi Alba, and Sergio Busquets. Also, his long-time coach for his national team (Argentia) has been appointed coach of the team and the chemistry has grown quicker than ever from a side that looked like they were the worst team in American Soccer for the first three months of play.
Not everything has been glorious since Messi’s big arrival in the MLS, though. His club, before he joined, sat at the bottom of the MLS table with only five victories, 22 goals scored, and a -14 goal difference. Thus, Inter Miami has not lost a single game since as they have seven wins and four draws, with the four draws turning into Penalty Kick wins, bringing them up to place 14 in the Eastern Conference.
One of the biggest questions still running through everyone’s mind is, can Inter Miami actually make the playoffs and potentially win the Major League Soccer Playoff Championship (MLS Cup)? While most professional soccer leagues in the world crown their champions via the team that finishes top of the table/standings, the MLS uses a different playoff system called the Audi MLS Cup Playoffs. The top nine teams in each conference (Eastern and Western) qualify for the playoffs. Seeds get locked in after Decision Day, which is the day of the regular-season final matchday (October 21). Once the bracket is set, 18 teams compete to make the MLS Cup on December 9th to crown the ultimate champion of the league.
Again, Inter Miami and Messi still have a lot of work to do just to get a spot in the playoffs. Inter Miami must climb up to ninth place (or higher) in the Eastern Conference standings, which would allow them to compete in the wild card round, held October 25 and 26. Messi and Miami have nine more games in MLS to make up an eight-point gap and pass nine teams along the way. Current projections, according to MLSsoccer.com, state that the team will need about 18 points to reach the playoffs. Miami will play five of their remaining nine league games at their home DRV PNK Stadium, which could help with home-field advantages. All but one match remaining is against teams in the Eastern Conference table, making it a better opportunity for them to gain points faster, which they desperately need right now.
So, if Miami can make the playoffs, they are most likely going to be in the eighth or ninth spot in the Eastern Conference Wild Card Matchup. This would be an astonishing turnaround as before Messi’s arrival the team had almost no chance of making the playoffs. There is a new playoff system this year with a first-round best-of-three series, and this can potentially allow for some massive drama with Miami and Messi if they can make it to the MLS Cup Playoffs.
After all this, can Inter Miami do it? The statistical model, 538, gives them only a four percent chance of making the playoffs, which is not in their favor. The club’s transformational summer window gives them a whole new light headlined by Busquets, Alba, and, the Messi himself. Just these three players alone have felt like they have turned Miami from looking like a disaster, in last place, to storming up the table taking the whole league and America by surprise.
Miami ultimately would more than likely consider this season a success even if they are not able to make the playoffs because with Messi they have won their first-ever trophy. Miami will also play for a second trophy on September 27, hosting Houston Dynamo FC for the US Open Cup Final.
This is just two months of Messi’s impact since joining the MLS, so just imagine what he could do in two years. Even if they do not make the playoffs, something everyone will know is that where Miami was before Messi, and where they are post-Messi, is considered a major success.
